Katsuyuki Okawara's Newsingsight (109) Sudden braking in the domestic computer market, the factor is GIGA School reaction and telework slump | Mynavi News Mynavi News Mynavi
Domestic PC shipments in the first quarter of 2021 (April -June 2021) announced by JEITA
It is the first time in four quarters that both the number and the amount of money fell below the previous year's results.In the 4th quarter of FY2020 (January to March 2021) just before, the number of shipments was 83 from the same period of the previous year..3%increase to 3.58 million units, the shipment amount 21.In contrast to the significant growth of ¥ 847.5 billion, an increase of 8%.
In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2020, which showed a record growth, there was a factor in the end of the fiscal year, and the number of shipments tended to increase, but the number of shipments in the first quarter of the fiscal year is about half a comparison.That's unusual.Compared to the fourth quarter of 2020, the first quarter is 49 by shipment..Half reduction by 2%.The shipment amount is 31.It has been reduced by 5%to about two -thirds.
Influence of "GIGA School" which is too large
The significant decline in the first quarter of FY2021 was the reaction to the government -led GIGA School concept that promoted the introduction of personal computers into education in 2020.
The government has formulated a GIGA school concept with the aim of improving each person in elementary and junior high schools.Initially, the maintenance was planned until FY2023, but with a view to realizing the home education environment for the Corona, the policy was changed to be developed ahead of FY2021.According to the industry estimation, there is about 8 million demands a year.
It cannot be overlooked that this was introduced in the fourth quarter of FY2020 as a result of an unusual growth.
In fact, according to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology's announcement, the procurement of the terminal was 1,337 municipalities of 1,812 municipalities nationwide that the delivery was completed in the fourth quarter of FY2020, and 73 of the total..8%is concentrated here.
In the same period of the previous year, Windows 7's support was ended (January 14, 2020), and special demand was occurring, but due to the last rush of the GIGA School concept, it can be said to be an unprecedented aircraft that is much higher than that.The number was recorded.
And the decline in the first quarter of 2021 is in the recoil of such special demand.
By the way, in JEITA's survey, the number of shipments by month has been negative for the third consecutive month since April 2021.April 2021 was 9 years from the same month of the previous year.631,000 units decreased 6%, 13 in May.4%decrease 467,000 units, 6 in June.The decrease of 1%to 722,000 units continues to be sluggish.
Let's look at JEITA's PC shipment statistics by category.
The number of laptops in the first quarter of 2021 was 6 years from the same period of the previous year..1,549,000 units decreased by 8%.The shipment amount is 14.The decrease of 8%is 141.2 billion yen.However, looking at the mobile notebook, the number of shipments is 29..2%increase to 6.19 million units, shipments are 7.It increased by 2%to 50.4 billion yen, far exceeding the previous year's achievements.
Mobile notebooks are tabulated as the number of laptops and refers to laptops with an LCD display size of 14 inches or less.Other laptops are tabulated as notebook type and other, and the number of shipments in the first quarter of 2021 is 21..4%decrease to 9.3 million units, ships are 23.The decrease of 5%to 90.8 billion yen is significantly reduced.
According to the stakeholders, mobile notebooks, notebooks and other contrasting results seem to be due to the influence of the GIGA school.
The category of the mobile notebook matches the specifications of 9 to 14 inches stipulated in the GIGA school concept (especially 11 to 13 inches), and all PCs developed by the GIGA school concept.Included in the category.
According to data from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, the local governments that the terminals would be delivered after April 2021, 3 of the total..It is a 64 municipality that hits 5%, including large -scale local governments such as Edogawa -ku, Tokyo, Adachi -ku, Ichikawa City, Chiba Prefecture, and Nagoya City, Aichi Prefecture.It is a view that a computer for education fields introduced by these municipalities is in this aggregation.
On the other hand, the desktop PC has a number of shipments 21 year -on -year..4%decreased to 271,000 units, ships are 19.9%decreased to 28.4 billion yen.Of these, the number of all -in -one shipments is 28.2%decrease 74,000 units, shipments are 26.¥ 11.6 billion to decrease by 0%.Single shipment number is 18.5%decreased to 197,000 units, shipments are 15.The decrease of 1%is 16.8 billion yen, which is much lower than the previous year's synchronization of the whole desktop.
Personal market sluggishness and telework demand
As mentioned so far, JEITA surveys have surpassed the previous year's results due to the delay in the GIGA School concept.JEITA commented, "Although it has been strong for corporations, it has become low for individuals."For corporations, a personal computer from the GIGA School concept is included.In addition, because the individual for individuals was low, the number and amount were lower than the previous year for three consecutive months.In other words, the sluggish personal market has led to a sluggish demand for the last three months.
So how depressed the personal computer market for individuals is?
According to BCN, which aggregates POS data such as mass retailers nationwide, the number of PCs sold in the first quarter of 2021 is 20..It is 2%down, which is much lower than the previous year's results.
Moreover, the laptop is 21 year -on -year..5%decrease and the depression is large.By the way, the desktop computer is 6.It is 1%decrease and the decline in the single digit range is left.
The result is the same even if you look at the monthly trends over the last three months.
April 2021, 21 in total.1%decrease.Among them, the laptop is 22.2%decrease, desktop PC is 5.6%decrease.May 2021, 21 in total.3%decrease.Of these, the laptop computer 23.0%decrease, desktop PC is 3.1%decrease.In June 2021, 17 in total.9%decreased.Of these, the laptop computer 17.9%decrease, desktop PC is 9.2%down.In June, although it has returned a little, it has been reduced by two digits.
In the same period of the previous year, there was a demand for teleworking, and the laptop computer was out of stock.I guess.
According to the office status of IoT data of the "Akerun Enrollment Room Management System", which Photosynth has introduced more than 5,000 companies nationwide, the Tokyo Metropolitan Government is the first emergency last year.30 when declaring a situation.The one that was 4%was 48 for the second time.5%, 54 in the third time.Increased to 4%.34 in Osaka Prefecture.9 %, 57.2 %, 50.In addition to 9, 45 prefectures, excluding Tokyo and Osaka prefectures, 49..1 %, 62.3 %, 67.Compared to the 8%, the first emergency declaration is launched, all of which have a significant increase in work.
At present, the fourth emergency declaration has been issued in Tokyo, and an emergency declaration has been issued in Okinawa Prefecture.In Osaka, Saitama, Chiba, and Kanagawa prefectures, priority measures such as extension have been issued.According to the company, the company's arrival rate in Tokyo is 58 even in the week of July 18, which is the latest data..It indicates that it is at a high level of 5%.In other words, even though this emergency declaration and priority measures such as the prevention of extensions have been issued, the usage rate of telework has not increased.
Looking at the status of the domestic computer market in the future, after July 2021, some local governments have shifted in the demand for GIGA schools, but the number added as demand is reduced.do.And considering that the use of teleworking does not grow, it is good that telework demand has already gone around.
According to the BCN, the aggregated value from July 1 to 20 was 22 from the same period of the previous year..9%decreased, with 23 laptops.0%decrease, the desktop PC is 22.1%decreased, and the depression is more intense than ever.
After the fall of 2021, the official release of Windows 11 is scheduled, and there are estimates that the PCs that will be replaced will reach half of the total number of domestic operations, and there are voices in the PC industry.However, it is dominant that the demand for replacement is to be stimulated until the end of Windows 10 support in October 2025.
Considering that it will be introduced in the GIGA School Concept in the concept of replacement of personal computers and replacement demand due to the end of Windows 10 support, the domestic computer market will reach the winter era for a while.It is going to be.
